Don’t Adopt These Must Hit Progressive “Theories”

Being in the advantage slot play “business” for around a decade now I’ve heard just about everything you can think of when it comes to slot machines. I was playing two must hit by progressive recently. One went well, the other not so much. Those results reminded me of a couple of related theories that I’ve heard over the years from other advantage players regarding these must hit progressives. However they are theories that are just plain wrong & I don’t want you to make the same mistake.

Scenario #1: Let’s say a hustler is watching a normal slot player playing a must hit by Ainsworth $10k & the hit before $500 minor is at $485. The player hits a series of bonus rounds that total $2000. The player is satisfied with the winnings, gets off the machine & leaves.

Incorrect theory #1 is the idea that “the machine just dumped out $2000. $485 is a good number but I’ll pass because it’s going to tighten up & suck it all back.” A slot machine’s payback or return to player is calculated over the long term. I’m talking really long term. Like millions of spins long term. So any short term variance to the positive side shouldn’t scare you off into thinking that the machine is suddenly going to rebalance itself & go into take back mode. There’s no such thing. If a machine is at a number you figure is playable then play it. Simple as that.

Scenario #2: A hustler is playing an Ainsworth $10k minor at $480. It goes disastrously. Bonus rounds are few & far between. To make matters worse, the bonus rounds pay poorly. The minor progressive runs to the limit & the hustler loses $2000.

Incorrect theory #2: “The machine was in a bad cycle. It’s been taking in money so I’m going to keep playing straight up because it could be ready to dump out a large bonus.”

You know what the hustler is doing in this scenario? The minor progressive has been hit & reset. There’s no advantage to be had. They’re simply gambling & chasing losses. Again, a machine is no more likely to pay or not pay due to any previous short-term result. If this unfortunate scenario happens to you, just get off the machine, chalk it up as a loss & move on to the next play. Don’t let it cloud your judgment. This is exercising discipline like I mentioned several months ago in a post I wrote about factors that could determine your success being an advantage slot player.